You're missing nepotism from the equation. The salaries available at American Big Tech have made it so that graduates see a dev career as more desirable than traditional prestige industries like investment banking and law. The same nepotistic hiring practices common in those industries will also become entrenched in tech and already are to an extent.
I don't doubt it, but it is also only the past 15-20 years or so when tech became a prestigious career with higher salaries than law and investment banking and not just a "job for nerds". To some extent, the latter is still the reputation it has in the UK/EU where the salaries are nowhere near US levels.
At the minute I would agree that I am going off a broader definition extended to friends and past colleagues but I strongly suspect in the next 10-20 years more traditional family nepotism will seep in as the kids of millennial coders who got their break at FAANG start graduating and using family contacts to land jobs. Yeah engineering will always require a baseline of knowledge but if the basic competence is present there is nothing to suggest that tech is immune to the nepotism which exists in every other industry. The "don't be evil" days are clearly long gone.
Does adding an old book risk making the model worse? Off the top of my head:
- Reinforcing outdated, disproved or otherwise incorrect information.
- Reinforcing outdated forms of communication e.g purple prose.
You could counter both by giving more weight to recent text and I suppose the extra data may help for tracing references and the evolution of ideas through history. If this is what they are resorting to it does feel more like "marginal gains" territory rather than ASI imminent territory
Here's a Ken Livingstone quote from the foreword of "Drama Games: For Those Who Like To Say No":
> In the early 1980s, when the GLC (Greater London Council) was trying to save and create jobs to mitigate the impact of Thatcher's recession, we discovered that the most labour-intensive form of public spending was the arts, and so during the five years from 1981 to 1986 we increased spending on arts and recreation from £l6 million to £160 million. Virtually every actor, painter, poet, sculptor and, in particular, community artist was in work, and it made London a much more exciting city to live in. As well as taking orchestras from the Royal Festival Hall to play in the canteen at Ford's Assembly Plant in Dagenham, we particularly tried to reach disaffected youth. It's against that background that I was able to understand Chris Johnston's book. (Oh, and by the way, if you want to know which is the least labour-intensive form of public spending, it is the military.)
Maybe if we stopped pushing insane amounts of money into fossil fuels and the military industrial complex, and instead redirected it into the arts and sciences then, just maybe, we might actually end up with a happier, more employed, more fulfilled, and more equal planet.
This only works if you can force every state to do it, lest naive states be defenseless against those that don't disarm. But any such compulsion would be self-terminating, and thus unstable.
Why not just do it all? Fund the military and the arts and the sciences.
The thing is what is the alternative option? If you don't build it, then your rivals do. All of your electronic and military systems then become compromised because your rivals can exploit or negate them one way or another via AI. So you have to build it regardless. It's a suicide pact the same way nuclear weapons are a suicide pact but if you don't have them then you're at the mercy of anyone else who does.
Build it without the catastrophising PR. Try, you know, selling it as something that will do good.
Altman wanking on about how he’s going to end the species is great for attracting investors—this crap worked for Bankman-Fried, too [1]. If you are building world-ending kit, you’re a super-important dude who has to be listened to. On the other end of the spectrum, you have everyone quietly doing their work.
Sometimes I wonder if what will actually happen, is that we will have very small startups, essentially a C-Suite but with actual coding skills and domain knowledge, who build new companies using AI that end up gaining an advantage over the incumbents and force them out of business. Indirectly you're replaced by AI. I could see the drasticity of the changes to culture and workflow that AI demands being too much for most legacy companies to handle. For instance, there are still a shockingly large number of companies relying on seriously dated software and paper based systems.
In my opinion, Cloudflare are coming at this from the wrong angle. WordPress is so popular because back in the day it was the easiest way to get a website built. So it got a network effect of engineers behind it which is why it persists at 40% of websites today. Same thing happened with React - majority of Typescript sites are written in React and NextJS because of the network effect around it.
Yeah the security aspect is important, but how many of those Wordpress engineers are going to jump ship to this because of security when they've been fine with the risk so far? My money is not a lot. If someone is a WordPress dev in 2026, they're probably not the type of dev that likes to upskill and learn new tech. Similarly, if you're looking to target the average joe looking to build a fresh website, would that consumer really choose this over Wix or Squarespace? It doesn't look easier to use so I wouldn't count on it. So where is the network effect going to come from to make this the new WordPress?
I could see Vinext being successful if they keep at it— I think there are a sizeable amount of people who would like to move away from Vercel (and who will probably migrate to Tanstack when the ecosystem is more stable). But I'm not sure people on WordPress really want to leave. If they really want to make this successful I think they need a better angle which in my opinion would be making it easier, quicker, cheaper and more flexible than Squarespace/Wix/Shopify etc
The "WordPress devs don't like to upskill" framing is off. Most of them maintain sites for clients who need WordPress specifically. They stay because their clients stay, not because they can't learn TypeScript.
The real talent drain isn't about technology at all. It's the governance mess. The WP Engine lawsuit, Matt's behavior on community Slack, the constant drama. That's what's pushing people out.
But even with all of that, nobody's leaving for EmDash. They're leaving for freelance Webflow work or getting out of CMS entirely. Cloudflare would need to solve the "why should I rebuild my entire business on your platform" question before the talent pool argument matters.
reply